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Photovoltaic industry "One Belt One Road" business opportunities

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Recently, U.S. trade representative Robert Letheze said in a statement that it will officially launch a trade investigation into China in the area of technology transfer, intellectual property and innovation under Article 301 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974. The survey immediately triggered concerns about China's PV industry, which has encountered international trade barriers for many consecutive times in recent years. The main target of the "301 Survey" is China.


However, "China Economic Weekly" reporter found that some of China's major PV companies have gradually evacuated the United States market. Reporters "thoroughly" four photovoltaic companies in November 2011 after the United States photovoltaic "double reverse" survey to significantly adjust the market strategy, of which three photovoltaic companies in Jiangsu January-August this year, the export volume to the United States are "zero ".

"Control is inevitable is a nightmare"

Industry experts said that the United States has huge potential PV market, which has been much concerned about the Chinese PV companies. However, due to the "double reverse" effect, the market share of the United States in the export market of PV modules in China (excluding the data of overseas factories exported to the United States) has been on an overall downward trend in recent years, only about 13% in 2015. In 2016, the installed capacity of PV in the United States reached 14.76GW, a 97% increase over the same period of last year. This is called the "PV Great Leap Forward." However, the market share of the US PV market in the export market dropped to 11% in the same period.

Some respondents think that under the influence of the "U.S. priority" policy, there will still be major unfavorable variables in the export of PV products to the United States in 2017. "We are not optimistic about the business in the United States to continue to explore the U.S. market there is a big risk." Jiangsu, a photovoltaic company executives told China Economic Weekly reporter.

Industry experts believe that the United States and Europe similar to "301 investigation" trade remedy measures for the Chinese PV companies undoubtedly sounded the alarm - "will inevitably be a nightmare." "China is the largest photovoltaic country in the world and the largest producer of photovoltaics, so the major markets in the next few years are still abroad, but when the global economic situation downturn, some countries think the PV industry is more 'assembled' by itself Economic, and can solve the domestic employment problem incidentally, trade protection is inevitable, so it is imperative for Chinese enterprises to turn their attention to the broader market, "said the experts.

The prominent contradictions in the domestic photovoltaic industry: output growth, high abandonment rate

According to the "2016 Operation of China's PV Industry" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the photovoltaic industry in China continued to pick up in recent years. The total output value in 2016 was as high as 336 billion yuan, up 27% over the same period of last year. The production scale in all links in the industry chain accounted for more than 50% Continue to rank first in the world. Therefore, China PV Industry Association will position 2016 as the "Prosperity Year" for PV development.

However, while recognizing that "the industry is getting warmer," there are some "love-hate" opportunities for the industry because of the difficulties in financing, high costs, slow recovery, poor access to the Internet and unclear land properties Before it can be completely solved, it is very difficult for China's "surplus" PV capacity to match the mature markets. Some experts even think that in the photovoltaic industry market mechanism is not yet perfect application of the situation, the effective domestic demand can not be generated on a large scale.

"China Economic Weekly" reporter combing data found that in 2016 China's new photovoltaic power generation installed capacity of 34.54GW, the cumulative installed capacity of 77.42GW, are the world's first. In the meantime, due to the failure of timely delivery and safe delivery, the amount of photovoltaic power to be renounced by the Northwest alone in 2016 was 7 billion kwh and the average rate of "discarding light" was nearly 20%. The proportion of Gansu and Xinjiang is even greater Is as high as 30%, 32%; into 2017, the national average "Abandoned" rate in the first quarter still reached 13%.

A large-scale PV company chief specifically mentioned "6˙30" incident. By the end of 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document stipulating that the on-grid feed-in tariffs for ground-based PV power plants in the first, second and third category of resource areas in the country will be reduced by 0.1 yuan, 0.07 yuan and 0.02 yuan per kWh respectively, but before June 30, 2016, Winners can enjoy pre-adjustment price; the end of 2016, the NDRC once again issued a circular, the corresponding electricity prices continue to cut 0.15 yuan, 0.13 yuan, 0.13 yuan, June 30, 2017 before the exception of the operator. As a result, the major PV companies received higher subsidies and set off a "grab-loading" boom before the "6 ˙30". In winter, construction costs were pushed up directly by high-cost procurement and other factors.

The official told China Economic Weekly reporter, at present the cost of photovoltaic power plants in China about 8 ~ 12 yuan / watt, the service life of about 25 years, if not timely grid-connected electricity tariff cuts caused by subsidies, it will not be able to recover cost. "But no one can guarantee that your power plant will be completed and grid-connected." The official said: "The theoretical size of the domestic market can reach over one trillion yuan. However, the actual situation is complicated and the system regulation capacity is insufficient and the power transmission capacity is insufficient and the policy Non-technical factors such as excessive speed and over-frequency adjustment are all affecting the expected benefits of the photovoltaic industry. "

Layout "Belt and Road" market

Faced with foreign barriers and the complicated situation in the domestic market, more and more Chinese PV companies respond with great enthusiasm to the country's "Belt and Road Initiative."

"Many countries along the Belt and Road have poor infrastructure for basic power facilities and very rich sunshine resources, which are very much needed and suitable for the development of the PV industry. Multi-point layouts will help Chinese enterprises eliminate over-reliance on certain strong cliques." In addition, under the general trend of gradually reducing and even completely canceling the government subsidies around the world, some countries and regions may become the cost deprivation of photovoltaic power generation and enterprises can obtain more reasonable social and economic benefits. "The above-mentioned large-scale Photovoltaic company official told China Economic Weekly reporter.

Industry experts told China Economic Weekly reporter that a potential market demand should not be overlooked - the tasks of upgrading and transforming the national grid along most of the "One Belt and One Road" are heavy. For example, power transmission losses in India, Mongolia, Pakistan, Tajikistan and other countries have been Higher than 10%, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal and other countries more than 20% (advanced countries such as Japan, the indicator below 5%). It is predicted that by 2040, generating units, which account for about 40% of the installed capacity of active service in the world, will need to be replaced and the "Belt and Road" countries will occupy a large proportion of them.

Jin Bao Fang, chairman and chief executive officer of JA Solar, believes that as a global leader in manufacturing in the PV industry, the PV industry will also become a part of the "Belt and Road" similar to the exit of such competitive industries as high-speed rail and nuclear power in the countries and regions along the route Energy applications play a huge role in promoting.

Public information shows that Suntech is actively exploring the markets along the "Belt and Road" countries and regions. Among them, Jordan occupies an absolute market share. Hareon Solar focuses on the cultivation and distribution in markets such as Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, India, Turkey and Egypt. It has also formed a joint venture with a major Indian power operator in India The compliance distributed photovoltaic power station is expected to generate 15.2 million kwh of electricity each year. TBEA has successively provided energy equipment to more than 60 countries and regions, as well as the integration of surveying, design, construction, training, operation and maintenance Key projects and system solutions. Sunshine Power has set up more than 10 branches and subsidiaries in the world and its products are exported to more than 50 countries. By the end of 2016, Sunshine Power has installed more than 38 million kilowatts of inverter equipment in the global market. JinkoSolar, on the other hand, established strategic cooperation with Heverglass, a German giants headquartered in Germany, to jointly develop the "Belt and Road" market and realize its development strategy from "global sales" to "global manufacturing" to "global investment."

In addition, some PV enterprises have also plowed down the countries and regions along the "Belt and Road" by means of equity participation, mergers and acquisitions, and new power plants, etc., and carried out industrial distribution in the form of "trade + production + service" and the trend of globalization became increasingly evident.

China Economic Weekly reporter also learned that, so far, China's PV companies have invested in, joint ventures, mergers and acquisitions and other means in more than 20 countries in the world to establish production bases, the overseas production capacity has been completed over 5GW. In 2016, China's exports of silicon wafers, cells and modules dropped by 11.3% YoY, which is directly related to the overseas production of factories overseas.

On May 12, 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration formally released the "Vision and Action for Promoting the Energy Cooperation in the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road", a move that is good news for the Chinese PV enterprises. The leaders of the above-mentioned PV enterprises told China Economic Weekly reporter that "Vision and Action" advocated that all governments should break the geographical barriers and conduct in-depth cooperation to promote trade facilitation of energy and resources, reduce transaction costs and form an open and stable global energy market. At the same time, enterprises are encouraged to deepen energy investment cooperation in various ways.

Many PV business people said they hope the country can have more diversified and specific guidance to help enterprises increase market opportunities and reduce investment risks. According to experts, more than 50% of new PV installed capacity will be generated along "Belt and Road" in the next 10 years, which will bring more market opportunities and speed up the transformation and upgrading of PV enterprises in China.

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